There is a ton of College Football betting taking place Tuesday through Friday as we roll into November for Week 10 of the regular season.
The action starts with a Sun Belt Conference matchup between Middle Tennessee State at Arkansas State on Tuesday. Neither school has a winning record, but both are coming off their most lopsided victory of the season. The opening betting line has the road team favored by one point. Neither of the previous two meetings have been even close with the home team dominating each time and racing out to 24-0 leads. MTSU is 9-2 SU the previous 11 meetings, but last time here only gained 124 total yards through three quarters. The betting trends clearly favor the Blue Raiders, who have covered nine of their last 11 Sun Belt games and are 8-0 ATS in the second half of the season the last two years. Arkansas State is just 9-27 ATS off a home win and 1-9 ATS in games where the betting line is three points or less.
Wednesday night features a Big East battle between Rutgers and South Florida. Once again, this is another game featuring teams going nowhere fast. Both are 4-3 straight up, but Rutgers is much worse at the betting window, having covered only one game all season. However, the Scarlet Knights have traditionally performed very well against USF, winning four straight years, including a 31-0 shutout last season. That was actually the first time a Bulls team had been shutout in 13 years of playing football. Their offense had been equally as bad this year in consecutive losses to Syracuse and West Virginia, however, the Bulls did come out and upset Cincinnati last Friday, 38-30, as 9.5-point underdogs. That college football pick qualified as our Friday Night Game of the Month. For this year’s game, USF is a big ten-point favorite on the betting line. A key betting trend for this game is that Rutgers is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Thursday has two games. The featured game, which will be on ESPN, is Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech. Since losing its first two games of the season, one to #3 Boise State and the other to FCS James Madison, the Hokies have been sensational, both on the field and at the betting window, going a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS. They now hold a 1.5 game edge in the ACC Coastal Division over the second place Yellow Jackets, who have won six of their last eight November road games. Last year’s 28-23 upset win by Georgia Tech was a tale of two halves. The Yellow Jackets were held scoreless for nearly the entire first half before racing out to a double-digit lead for most of the second half. Georgia Tech completed just one pass in the victory. A key betting trend for this game is that Virginia Tech has covered 18 of their last 25 Thursday games and five of the last six. They are significant two touchdown favorites on the betting line.
The other Thursday game taks place in the Mid American Conference with Ohio U hosting Buffalo. The Bobcats of Ohio are in the hunt for a MAC East total and are clearly building towards a November 16th road date with Temple. Since losing their first three games vs. FBS teams, both SU and ATS, Ohio has won five straight (4-1 ATS). This is their home finale, a spot they are just 7-14 SU in the last 21 years. They are however 10-3 SU the last four years in November and 8-4 SU vs. Buffalo. The betting line has them favored by 15.5 points here. The visitor has won each of the last two meetings after dropping nine of the first ten. Buffalo’s only win over a FBS team was 28-26 over Bowling Green. Their six losses have come by an average of greater than 25 PPG. That includes a losing margin of 108-23 over the last three games. One key betting trend is that Ohio is a perfect 9-0 ATS coming off an Over.
Moving to Friday, we have a dreadful MAC matchup of Western Michigan at Central Michigan. Few teams have fallen as far from last year as has Central Michigan, who went from a 12-2 team to 2-7 this year. They have lost six straight games, failing to cover the last five, but are actually 3.5-point favorites on the betting line for this game. That’s because Western Michigan has lost four straight times to the Chippewas and is just 2-15-1 SU since 1972 in Mount Pleasant.
Houston’s dreams of going to a BCS bowl game quickly went out the window when they lost QB Keenum for the season and now they must host a Central Florida team that has covered eight straight road games. Overall, UCF comes in riding a four-game win streak and a six-game ATS win streak. There only SU loss during that stretch came at Kansas State by four points. Two of Houston’s three losses this season have also come to BCS schools (UCLA and Miss St). The home team has never lost in this Conference USA matchup. Last year, Central Florida went on a 27-3 second half run, outgaining the Cougars 224-57 during that span, for a 37-32 upset win as four-point underdogs. Houston actually scored two touchdowns late to make the game look closer than it actually was. This year, Houston is a 3.5-point home underdog on the betting line.
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